NFL Picks Week 4: Eagles, Chiefs, Niners best Survivor picks

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BEST BETS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-1) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-1)

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LINE: New Orleans by 3

CHEWABLE: With Derek Carr on the shelf, Jameis Winston gets to face the team that made him the first pick of the 2015 draft and then moved away from him after five seasons. Having a bigger impact will be Alvin Kamara, who returns after off-field stupidity caused him to be suspended for three games. Kamara is excited, saying he feels like he’s back in college, and has traditionally matched up well against the Bucs, helping his team win eight of 11 by scoring 10 TDs … The Saints have allowed 20 points or fewer in 11 straight games and will make it an even dozen against the Bucs — whose offence managed just 11 points and 174 yards of offence against the Eagles on Monday — especially with cornerback Marshon Lattimore taking Mike Evans away from Baker Mayfield.

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TAKING: NEW ORLEANS -3

SCORE (O/U 40.5): Saints 20, Bucs 14

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (2-1) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-0)

LINE: Philadelphia by 8

CHEWABLE: The Eagles have lost once in their last 18 regular-season games, and that was to the Commanders in Week 10 last season, on a Monday night for all the world to see. They will want to erase that memory and should with ease … It’s widely acknowledged that, through three games, DT Jalen Carter has been the best player from the 2023 draft class, and he should create havoc against a Washington O-line that last week allowed its QB to get sacked nine times — and on 16.1 percent of his drop backs this season — along with throwing four picks … Carter will plug up some holes Brian Robinson ran through while carrying the ball 26 times for 86 yards in Washington’s 32-21 upset win last season … As big as the trenches mismatch will be when Commanders have the ball, Philly will also flex its muscles on offence. Jalen Hurts threw for a season-high 277 yards against the Bucs, and that was while pulling back in the fourth quarter of the easy win against Tampa Bay. He’ll exploit the Commanders, with Dallas Goedert likely to have a big day against the soft Washington linebacker group … Best Survivor Pool pick of the week.

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TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -8

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Eagles 33, Commanders 14

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-1) at NEW YORK JETS (1-2)

LINE: Kansas City by 9.5 

CHEWABLE: Seriously, there were more questions asked about Taylor Swift than Patrick Mahomes’ ankle after the Chiefs plastered the Bears last week. Clearly, Mahomes would excel as an salesman for State Farm — the insurance company he does commercials for — after talking Andy Reid into letting him continue to play when the team was up 34-0 and he was hobbled by an apparent ankle injury … Perhaps it was allowed because they both knew the Chiefs offence still isn’t operating on all cylinders, having scored just 20 and 17 against the Lions and Jags. Facing the Jets provides Mahomes and company their best test to date, and at that K.C. will excel. Gang Green has trouble defending passes through the middle (hello Travis Kelce) and is 23rd against the run (hi Isiah Pacheco) … It’s beyond incredulous that the Jets will again use Zach Wilson at QB with nobody better than Trevor Siemian available in relief. Wilson’s 18-of-36 against the Patriots was his best game of the season, only because he didn’t throw a pick … How important is a quarterback? With Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to Garrett Wilson and handing it to Breece Hall, the Jets would have been fine offensively. With Wilson standing in for Rodgers they have scored a NFL-low 42 points … Second best Survivor Pool pick of the week.

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TAKING: KANSAS CITY -9.5

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Chiefs 27, Jets 10

THE REST

ATLANTA FALCONS (2-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-2)

(at London)

LINE: Jacksonville by 3 

CHEWABLE: The Jaguars have had a very disappointing start, with their vaunted offence scoring just 26 points in back-to-back home losses versus the Colts and Texans. Best they get far away from home for awhile, right? If familiarity with the environment is a factor — and when you’re crossing the ocean it should be — the Jags are more used to tea, crumpets and early kickoffs than any other team, as this will be their 10th game in London, with only the Raiders and Dolphins playing as many as five. They are 4-5 in previous visits, while the Falcons have a 1-1 record to show from their two trips to the UK … The Falcons managed only six points off the boot of Younghoe Koo in their game in Detroit last week, where they inexplicably moved away from the run game that helped them win their first two … Falcons will have trouble re-establishing solid ground work by Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier against the Jags’ seventh-ranked run defence, while Trevor Lawrence gets in a rhythm with his new toy, ex-Falcon Calvin Ridley.

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TAKING: JACKSONVILLE -3

SCORE (O/U 43.5): Jags 34, Falcons 23

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-0) at BUFFALO BILLS (2-1)

LINE: Buffalo by 2.5 

CHEWABLE: Most anticipated game of Week 4 as the Dolphins’ No. 1-ranked offence butts head with the Bills’ No. 2-ranked defence. The Bills can also score, with the second-most points per game average after scoring 75 in their last two. But can the Fish defend? Miami is 24th against the run and 20th against the pass … Buffalo has won seven of the last eight meetings … Josh Allen has to be getting a little tired of the hype around the Dolphins … Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa no doubt noticed that the Bills sacked Washington QB Sam Howell nine times last Sunday … Miami head coach Mike McDaniel thought he was being a nice guy by calling off the dogs last week against Denver? Having your team purposely not score sounds like a karma that can come back to bite a guy.

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TAKING: BUFFALO -2.5

SCORE (O/U 53.5): Bills 30, Dolphins 24

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-3) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-3)

LINE: Minnesota by 4.5

CHEWABLE: Bad news for Panthers backers: Among those not practicing through midweek were LB Frankie Luvu and S Xavier Woods, who will miss a month with a hamstring injury, and that minus those, Kirk Cousins will have a nice day, as will Justin Jefferson and, against the Panthers 28th-ranked run defence, Alexander Mattison, as well as Cam Akers in his Vikings debut. Also bad news for Panthers money is that Bryce Young was a full participant. If the rookie QB makes his third NFL start, the Vikings’ horrid pass coverage might have a chance. Andy Dalton would make the Vikings regret letting Adam Thielen slip away. 

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TAKING: CAROLINA  +4.5

SCORE (O/U 45.5): Vikings 27, Panthers 24

DENVER BRONCOS (0-3) at CHICAGO BEARS (0-3)

LINE: Denver by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Thus far in his career, Justin Fields has led the Bears to a 5-23 record and their current 12-game losing streak. He has passed for 27 TDs against 25 picks, been sacked 104 times for 704 yards, completed less than 60 percent of his throws for an average of 154 yards per game. Still, if the Bears can’t figure out a way to put up some points against team that became the first in 57 years to give up 10 touchdowns in a game, coaches have to be reassigned. To Timbuktu … Denver has given up 105 points in the last two games, but Soldier Field is where Sean Payton will fittingly pick up his first win as Broncos coach here. Chicago is the team for which he played his only three NFL games.

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TAKING: CHICAGO +3.5

SCORE (O/U 46.0): Broncos 28, Bears 27

BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-1)

LINE: Cleveland by 3

CHEWABLE: Three games into his tenure as Cleveland’s defensive coordinator, former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has the Browns ‘D’ ranked No. 1 in the NFL … Question: Has Deshaun Watson finally turned the corner back towards the QB he used to be, or could any Joe Blow have completed all but six of 33 passes for 289 yards and a couple of TDs like Watson did against the Titans’ shoddy pass defence last week? … The Ravens killed a lot of Survivor Pool players who picked them at home against Indy last week, but they were without a number of important cogs, but at least four of the injured practiced this week. Lamar Jackson gains some redemption and takes care of the ball in a huge divisional matchup.

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TAKING: BALTIMORE +3

SCORE (O/U 41.0): Ravens 20, Browns 17

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-1) at HOUSTON TEXANS (1-2)

LINE: Pittsburgh by 2.5

CHEWABLE: Both C.J. Stroud and Kenny Pickett are coming off wins for a matchup featuring two quarterback we’ll watch for the next 15 years. Stroud’s was his first, but he has been very good in all three starts to date, throwing for 906 yards, four TDs and no picks, but now he has to survive pressure the likes of which he has never seen, supplied by T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. With the Texans line banged up, odds are it will be a long and dangerous day for the former Ohio State star … Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 14-29 ATS as road favourites coming off a victory, but the way their defence is stealing games, the 15th win will come before the 30th loss in such situations.

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TAKING: PITTSBURGH -2.5

SCORE (O/U 42.0): Steelers 23, Texans 20

LOS ANGELES RAMS (1-2) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-1)

LINE: Indianapolis by 1

CHEWABLE: Expect Colts QB Anthony Richardson to be back from the concussion that caused him to miss his team’s 22-19 upset win over the Ravens and, with the surprising Colts returning home from two road victories, he should have an advantage against a west coast team with a 1 p.m. start on a short week … The Rams offence was brutal in last week’s loss to gimpy Joe Burrow’s team — it converted just once on 12 third down situations — and a lot of that had to do with the Bengals’ pass rush. Watch for the Aaron Donald-led Rams defence (ranked seventh) to continue exceeding expectations in a game that screams “take the UNDER!”

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS +1

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Rams 21, Colts 17

CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-2) at TENNESSEE TITANS (1-2)

LINE: Cincinnati by 2.5 

CHEWABLE: Are the Titans as bad as the Browns made them look last week? They had 94 yards of total offence, with Derrick Henry limited to 20 yards on 11 carries. They have a weak offensive line, which the Bengals will have fun with on Sunday, but Mike Vrabel is still a good coach who can come up with some fixes … Joe Burrow played on one leg last week and he can have success that way again versus the Titans’ 28th-ranked pass defence. Tennessee is tough against the run, however, so Joe Mixon should have trouble finding holes … The Bengals have won the last three meetings and seven of the last nine. The trend continues, but don’t get carried away thinking the line is way too low because it’s actually where it should be.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +2.5

SCORE (O/U 41.5): Bengals 23, Titans 21

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-2) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-2)

LINE: L.A. Chargers by 5.5

CHEWABLE: Replacing the injured Jimmy Garoppolo will either be veteran backup Brian Hoyer or untested rookie Aidan O’Connell, but really, it could be you or me and we’d still be able to have a career day against the 32nd-ranked Chargers pass defence — especially when we have a pissed-off Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers as targets. Also count on Josh Jacobs to rush for triple figures for the first time this year, as he’ll get more carries because the first-string QB isn’t sidelined and because the Chargers also have trouble stopping the run … Brampton’s Josh Palmer replaces Mike Williams as the Chargers’ second-best receiver, but really, it could be you or me running routes and Justin Herbert would find us. The Raiders are better defending aerial attacks (15th) than Minnesota, but the Chargers could also have Austin Ekeler coming out of the backfield this week. Either way, Chargers win in spite of their defence, in a game that screams “take the OVER!”

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TAKING: LAS VEGAS +5.5

SCORE (O/U 47.5): Chargers 31, Raiders 27

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)

LINE: Dallas by 6.5

CHEWABLE: Through three games, Ezekiel Elliott has carried the ball only 28 times for 122 yards — numbers he generally would achieve on a per-outing basis during seven seasons with the Cowboys — but he should show flashes of his old self here. First, because he’s returning to Dallas to play against the team that dumped him, and secondly, because the normally stout Cowboys defence is currently 25th against the run … The Cowboys will be looking to re-establish themselves after last week’s stunning 28-16 loss in Arizona, but if Arizona’s Joshua Dobbs can beat them by double digits, then Mac Jones and the Patriots certainly have a shot at pulling off an upset here … Bill Belichick is not the ideal matchup for a guy like the slow-to-start Dak Prescott, who will need yeoman’s work from his O-line against the strong Patriots pass rush. Elliott successor Tony Pollard shouldn’t see a lot of daylight against New England’s ninth-ranked run defence either. Cowboys win but the Patriots are being disrespected with the spread.

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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND +6.5

SCORE (O/U 43.0): Cowboys 23, Patriots 21

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-0)

LINE: San Francisco by 14

CHEWABLE: Joshua Dobbs would be an early candidate for Comeback Player of The Year, except where’s he coming back from? He had only two starts over his first three years in the league, and despite beating the Cowboys last week, you can’t say Dobbs is even an household name only in his own house, as he recently had fun with a video showing he couldn’t find a ‘Dobbs’ custom-made jersey being sold by the Cardinals … I’ve been referring to Arizona as the worst team in the league, but no more. Not only are the Cards 3-0 ATS, but they have a first-half point differential of +34, which is fourth best in the NFL … All Niners do is score exactly 30 points, but this week that trend should be trickier to maintain. Not because the Cards defence is great — it did allow the Cowboys 416 yards total offence and it is ranked 26th against the run, which bodes well for Christian McCaffrey fantasy owners — but because injuries leave the status of their top three receivers (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Juan Jennings) up in the air … While Brock Purdy has a perfect 8-0 career record as a starter, this will be the first time the product of Queen Creek, Ariz. will be playing against his hometown team. There’s bound to be some distractions. The Niners win, but that’s an awfully big spread for a divisional matchup with a team that’s on a high and enjoying making some of us look stupid.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +14

SCORE (O/U 44.0): Niners 27, Cardinals 17

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS (1-2)

LINE: N.Y. Giants by 1

CHEWABLE: The Seahawks have scored 37 points in each of their last two games, wins over the Lions and Panthers, and both have better defences than the No. 24 ranked Giants. However, the two losses by the G-Men have been to the Cowboys and Niners, both known for their strong defensive units. Now they get to face the Seahawks, who have allowed more yards per game than every team except the Chargers and Broncos. Also, New York should be getting LT Andrew Thomas back, which would greatly help a struggling line, as well as the possibility of Saquon Barkley returning … The Seahawks have won five of the last six meetings, including a 27-13 triumph last season, and now Daniel Jones can turn the tables by exploiting a secondary ranked 31st. Last possession wins in, you guessed it, one that screams “take the OVER!”

TAKING: N.Y. GIANTS -1

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Giants 33, Seahawks 31

NFL picks Week 4

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