The best bets for the Caulfield Cup, and hot ‘roughie’

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A quality field of 18 plus one emergency have accepted to ride in today’s Caulfield Cup but there is still doubt favourite Gold Trip will take his place in the 2400m Group 1 handicap.

Jockey Ben Melham has been booked for the ride and Gold Trip has drawn barrier 11, the same barrier the stayer jumped from when second to Durston last year.

However, a start will still come down to the track, with trainers likely to scratch the horse if they think it is too firm.

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Should Gold Trip not take his place on Saturday, stablemate United Nations will gain a start and give apprentice Carleen Hefel her first ride in the race.

Star trainer Chris Waller will have three representatives in Montefilia (barrier 9), Francesco Guardi (15) and Soulcombe (6) while dual Melbourne Cup winning trainer, Irish conditioner Joseph O’Brien, will have Okita Soushi (12) and Valiant King (1), the latter to be ridden by Jamie Kah.

Japanese entrant Breakup drew barrier 5 while West Wind Blows rounds out the international contingent drawing in gate 2.

The Caulfield Cup

Emma Freedman: #8 SOULCOMBE

Lizzie Jelfs: #6 WEST WIND BLOWS

Katelyn McDonald: #8 SOULCOMBE

Jason Richardson (top tip): #3 BREAKUP

Jason Richardson – Richo’s Roughie: #18 VALIANT KING

Dudley (The 7 computer): #6 WEST WIND BLOWS

The Insider: #18 VALIANT KING

Notes: Irish raider having his first Australian start. He’s a northern hemisphere 3YO and they have the best record of any age/sex for international travellers down under during the spring. He was beaten 1.5L by Vauban two starts ago. Vauban is the $4.50 favourite for the Melbourne Cup. Why is this guy $18 for a Caulfield Cup, which is traditionally easier?

Dudley says in the last decade…

– 70 per cent of Caulfield Cup winners have finished top three in the Turnbull Stakes or were in their first Australian start

– 60 per cent have been aged 4 or 5

– 50 per cent have come from double-figure barriers, 40 per cent from 6-8

– 70 per cent have carried 55kgs or above

– 90 per cent have been won by jockeys winning their first Caulfield Cup

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7plus Ratings

The top picks for every race at Caulfield and Randwick, plus back-ups (in brackets) in case of scratchings.

CAULFIELD

Race 1: 2. Brave Mead (6. Kandinsky Abstract)

Race 2: 2. Riff Rocket (1. Sunsource)

Race 3: 1. Tropical Squall (6. Grinzinger Belle)

Race 4: 8. Facile (4. Prinzerro)

Race 5: 12. Lovely Lookin’ (6. Zoukerette)

Race 6: 1. Lofty Strike (4. General Beau)

Race 7: Waltz On By (1. Madame Pommery)

Race 8: 10. Nunthorpe (5. Umgawa)

Race 9: 1. Gold Trip (4. Montefilla)

Race 10: 5. Viviane (2. Bound For Home)

RANDWICK

Race 1: 3. Blue Illusion

Race 2: Amarantz (3. Lord Desanimaux)

Race 3: 11 Smartawi (3. Rebel Shadow)

Race 4: 4. Stroke Of Luck

Race 5: 2. Rainbiel (10. Demiana)

Race 6: 7. Smashing Eagle (10. Mars Mission)

Race 7: 11. Unspoken (9. Wild Planet)

Race 8: 5. Cotehele (7. Detonator Jack)

Race 9: 1. Flying Crazy (8. Aramayo)

Race 10: 13. Tristate (17. Sebonack)

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