Shah-Nadda miscalculation, Karnataka setback & conflicting ambitions — why BJP is hurting in Telangana
Hyderabad/Siddipet/Karimnagar: Two women sitting at a small retail shop in Gajwel’s Sivaru Venkatapuram village, at a stone’s throw from Telangana chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao’s (KCR) sprawling farmhouse, express different voting choices in the coming polls — one for his Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and the other against it. KCR’s almost weekly visits to and night stays at the farmhouse, about 65 km north of Hyderabad, have been a matter of public curiosity and speculation in the state.
The woman who doesn’t want to vote for his party is a beneficiary of the Rythu Bandhu scheme — Rs 10,000 per acre per annum — but it’s not good enough for her to give him a third term in office. The other woman is happy about electricity, water supply, good roads and welfare schemes even though she resents the fact that he “drives past them without stopping or even acknowledging their presence”. Both look perplexed, albeit amused, when asked about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Even the mention of Prime Minister Narendra Modi fails to draw them into a conversation about the party.
As one makes pit stops on the way from Hyderabad to Karimnagar, there are broadly two kinds of voices emerging from the ground — no-changers and pro-changers. The latter sound tentative as they talk about the Congress being their alternative choice. They have enough time to make up their mind as Telangana goes to polls a month later — on 30 November. What’s, however, surprising is the way the BJP is getting less and less mention in the electoral discourse.
While quitting the BJP last Wednesday, former Telangana parliamentarian Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy said in a parting shot: “The BJP was emerging as the substitute to the BRS last year but has lost momentum due to later political developments.”
Reverse migration — that, too, within a year after the BJP projected Reddy as a prize catch — is rather new to the party that has been a centripetal force since Modi’s ascension on the national political centrestage in 2013.
Reddy’s rationale for quitting the BJP is, however, largely endorsed in Telangana’s political circles and validated by voices on the ground. “Delhi media made the BJP our principal opposition but it was never there on the ground. They lost deposits in 105 out of 119 constituencies in 2018 and it won’t be different this time. We are working towards it,” K. Kavitha, BRS legislator and KCR’s daughter, told ThePrint.
One could dismiss it as a predictable reaction from a BRS leader but ThePrint’s interactions with over half-a-dozen top functionaries from the BJP, BRS and the Congress, seasoned political observers as also with the people on the ground suggested strong headwinds for the BJP that was seen as the principal challenger to the ruling BRS in Telangana until recently.
A senior BJP leader in Hyderabad, however, dismissed the idea of a BJP downturn. “It starts with your assumption that we made it big here. The fact is if we won the Dubbaka bypoll and did well in Hyderabad municipal polls (November-December 2020), we also lost our deposits in Nagarjunsagar (bypoll) six months later. If we won Huzurabad due to (sitting BRS MLA) Eetala Rajender joining us, we also lost Munugode despite the sitting Congress MLA (Rajagopal Reddy) resigning and contesting on our ticket. It was always tough for us. It’s, therefore, misleading to say that the BJP has had a massive slide. First you pump us up and then try to deflate,” he said.
His colleague, K. Laxman, BJP parliamentary board member and the party’s former state unit president, had a different opinion though. “Show me one election where the Congress won. Even in Munugode, the Congress lost deposits. Our BJP-backed candidate won the MLC election from Mehboobnagar teachers’ constituency (in March 2023). The yardstick to measure any political party’s influence is elections and the BJP has proved its strength by defeating the BRS and the Congress repeatedly,” Laxman said to ThePrint.
He also dismissed the C-Voter opinion poll that showed the BJP winning only 5-11 seats in the 119-member assembly. “Show me one survey that showed us winning Dubbaka or GHMC (Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation, in which the BJP did not win but put up a stupendous show) or Huzurabad. Show me which survey showed the Congress fighting. Now there is a propaganda to put us down,” he said.
While Laxman put up a brave face, many of his party colleagues in Hyderabad, in their interactions with ThePrint, conceded that the BJP has lost its momentum in Telangana. Their assessment was also that of the BRS, and the Congress.
The BJP is battling with the perception of becoming a “power-enabler” for the BRS, not a challenger.
“The BJP started with the objective of replacing the BRS. But it soon came as a revelation to the party that it has no candidates, no social base in Telangana and even Prime Minister Modi is not a force to reckon with in South India. That’s when it decided to take a backseat and bargain with KCR to ensure his support in the Lok Sabha election and later. When the PM, Amit Shah or other leaders come here and speak against KCR, it’s more to ensure the Congress’ loss in a triangular contest,” said G. Haragopal, a former professor and dean, school of social sciences, University of Hyderabad.
This only sums up what has dominated the election discourse in Telangana this election season — allegations and counter-allegations about the BJP striking a deal with the BRS. The Congress has, for instance, been questioning why K. Kavitha has not been arrested in the alleged Delhi liquor scam.
BRS leaders dismiss it saying that there was no evidence against her for the central agencies to arrest and the BJP was only using them to harass her.
BJP leaders, however, conceded to ThePrint in private that this perception might have alienated those who were looking at the BJP as an alternative. “Removal of Bandi Sanjay, who was constantly attacking the KCR family, as state BJP president, only deepened this suspicion,” said a BJP leader.
Also read: 50 seats with over 50 percent voteshare — why it’s not easy to dislodge KCR
Three other reasons why
Political analysts broadly suggested three reasons for the BJP’s seeming downturn, Amit Shah-J.P. Nadda’s miscalculations being the first. “They relied too much on Eatala Rajender’s ability to get 30-40 TRS MLAs to defect. He couldn’t deliver any. Now we don’t have many serious candidates worth their name,” said a BJP functionary.
A BRS leader confided that KCR could have replaced at least 25-30 party MLAs but he retained almost all of them and also gave tickets to “established” candidates on other seats “to deny the BJP and the Congress an opportunity to poach strong BRS candidates.” “That has spoiled the BJP’s gameplan as it doesn’t have good candidates of their own,” said the BRS leader.
A senior BJP functionary said that replacing firebrand Bandi Sanjay Kumar with a “non-confrontationist” G. Kishan Reddy was a “big mistake”.
“Bandi Sanjay had created a huge buzz in our favour with his confrontational politics against the KCR government and his family. He also brought Hindutva to the forefront in Telangana politics. His removal only lent credence to the Opposition allegation about the party coming to an understanding with KCR. However much we attack the BRS now, it looks like an attempt to weaken the Congress by eating into anti-incumbency votes,” confided the BJP functionary.
“But it’s all the high command’s decision. Who asks us?” he said, resignedly.
The second reason Telangana politicians cite is linked to the first one — Karnataka setback for the BJP, which ‘demoralised’ the party cadres by “reinforcing the Opposition-created perception” about the party’s non-acceptability in southern states. When the BJP makes forays into new territories, it usually depends a lot on defections of prominent leaders from other parties to give it a boost and constituency-wise and community-wise faces. Karnataka results made potential defectors re-think.
A senior BJP functionary gave a different twist though, “70 percent of realtors in Hyderabad have business interests in Karnataka. Even a mid-level Telangana Congressman can be useful to them in getting things done in Karnataka. You know the nexus between realtors and politicians. Once the Congress came to power in Karnataka, these Hyderabad realtors found it safer to back the Congress or the BRS. That dissuaded their MLAs and leaders from coming to the BJP.”
Madhu Goud Yaskhi, former Nizamabad MP who is now the Congress candidate from L.B. Nagar, rejected this argument. “It’s the other way around. Most of the big realtors with interests here are from Karnataka. This argument is ridiculous,” he told ThePrint.
The third reason for the BJP’s downturn being cited by politicians in Telangana is the “conflicting ambitions” of BJP leaders. Eetala Rajender joined the BJP hoping to become the party’s chief ministerial face. “Eetala was directly in touch with the party high command. From day one, he had issues with Bandi Sanjay. It didn’t help,” said one of the BJP functionaries.
“Similarly, after winning Dubbaka, Raghunandan Rao wanted to become the BJP’s floor leader in the assembly. Bandi Sanjay didn’t support him because he was waiting for T. Raja Singh’s suspension (by the BJP) to be revoked so that he could take that place. Rao, therefore, started opposing Bandi Sanjay,” another senior BJP functionary told ThePrint. “Unfortunately, the high command came under their pressure and replaced Bandi Sanjay with G. Kishan Reddy, sending a wrong message to the party cadres as also the voters,” he said.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
Also read: BJP revokes suspension of controversial Telangana MLA T Raja, fields him from Goshamahal seat
